Comparison of Projections of Precipitation over Yangtze River Basin of China by Different Climate Models

Based on the observational dataset CN05.1 and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), this study assesses performance of CMIP5 CMIP6 projects in projecting mean precipitation at annual seasonal timescales Yangtze River Basin China over period 2015–2020 under medium emission scenarios (RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5). Results indicate that multi-model ensemble (MME) overall has lower relative bias root-mean square error both than CMIP5, except for winter, but two ensembles show best projected accuracy winter. Generally, outperformed capturing spatial temporal pattern YRB, especially midstream downstream areas, which have high precipitation. Further analyses suggest GCMs median normalized GCMs. Taylor skill (TS) score, are ranked to evaluate model performance. higher ranks GCMs, with an average TS score 0.68 (0.55) (CMIP5), three out five highest scored However, projections still quite uncertain, thus requiring further assessment correction.